69.7 average across 2 concepts
Local operating-model alignment analysis
Best Franchise Opportunities We Assessed in Stockton, California
We compared 14 franchise concepts for Stockton, California. Household service demand was a leading positive mechanism. Frontline labor pressure was a leading operating constraint.
What “best” means in this ranking“Best” means the strongest modeled local operating alignment among the franchise concepts assessed on this page. It does not estimate earnings or determine which franchise is best for a particular candidate.
14Concepts evaluated
23Sources used
17Primary sources
28Local metrics
Evaluation set
Why these concepts were evaluated
This is not a ranking of every franchise that may be offered in the city.
14Concepts assessed
Concepts were included when enough operating-model information existed to assign a provisional local-sensitivity profile. Unresolved inputs reduce confidence or remain conditional rather than automatically excluding a concept.
A brand’s participation in our referral network does not add points or change its position.
City-level conclusions
What stood out in our assessment
0.3 points average among 13 affected concepts
0.5 points average reduction among 8 affected concepts
Tested rank range spans 11 positions
Executive conclusion
What the ranking means for Stockton, California
City Wide, HomeSmiles, and ZOOM DRAIN produced the highest modeled local-alignment scores in the evaluated set. Household service demand was the strongest positive scored mechanism among 8 exposed concepts, adding 0.4 points on average. Frontline labor pressure was the broadest operating constraint, reducing exposed concepts by 0.5 points on average. Jan-Pro International was especially relationship-sensitive: removing frontline labor pressure moved it from #13 to #3 in the full model rerun. These scores describe local operating alignment, not expected returns or overall franchise quality; the offered territory and franchise economics still require separate diligence.
How this differs from a directory: the model does not award points for brand popularity, advertising placement, or referral compensation. It tests how documented local conditions interact with each concept’s operating requirements.
Best franchise opportunities assessed
Top 10 local-alignment scores from 14 concepts assessed
“Best” refers to modeled local operating alignment among the concepts assessed—not expected earnings, franchise-system quality, or candidate fit.
Rankings use full-precision scores.Displayed values use one decimal place. Identical displayed scores can therefore have different ranks, and close results should be treated as effectively similar.
| Rank | Franchise | Alignment and tier | Largest advantage | Largest constraint | Evidence confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | City WideFacility managementInvestment: $229,729–$410,730 | 71.0Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.7 ptsTarget-market demand | -0.3 ptsLabor and staffing friction | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 2 | HomeSmilesProperty maintenance servicesInvestment: $148,110–$201,800 | 70.8Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.7 ptsTarget-market demand | -0.4 ptsLabor and staffing friction | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 3 | ZOOM DRAINDrain and sewer serviceInvestment: $266,250–$570,500 | 70.7Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.4 ptsTarget-market demand | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 4 | Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHome inspectionInvestment: $102,690–$134,290 | 70.6Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.6 ptsTarget-market demand | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 5 | ActionCOACHBusiness coachingInvestment: $71,668–$303,513 | 70.5Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.4 ptsReferral ecosystem | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 6 | Mr. RooterPlumbingInvestment: $152,900–$298,675 | 70.4Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.4 ptsTarget-market demand | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 7 | Mister Sparky ElectricElectrical | 70.4Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.4 ptsTarget-market demand | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 8 | Aire ServHVAC installation, repair, and maintenanceInvestment: $113,308–$271,708 | 70.3Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.4 ptsTarget-market demand | -0.1 ptsLabor and staffing friction | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 9 | FASTSIGNSSigns and graphicsInvestment: $231,226–$386,285 | 70.3Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.2 ptsReferral ecosystem | No material negative local adjustment | Moderate evidence confidence |
| 10 | Tiger AdjustersPublic insurance adjustingInvestment: $43,050–$159,500 | 70.1Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment | +0.1 ptsTarget-market demand | -0.1 ptsLabor and staffing friction | Moderate evidence confidence |
Conditions that changed the analysis
What mattered most in Stockton, California
Modest city population growth plus continued regional housing production supports household-service demand
This relationship affected 8 concepts and added 0.4 points on average among those exposed. Local evidence: HUD three-year new-home demand forecast and units already under construction: forecast new home demand: 10,100; under construction: 1,225; forecast period: 2024-08-01 to 2027-08-01 housing units. [5] [6]
Large logistics occupation base competes for overlapping physical frontline hourly labor
This relationship affected 9 concepts and reduced 0.5 points on average among those exposed. Local evidence: California general minimum wage effective January 1, 2026: 16.9 usd per hour. [9] [8]
Stockton had an estimated 324,597 residents in 2025 and 99,093 households in 2020-2024
Resident market scale should not be converted directly into uniform weekday midday walk-in demand. Current SJCOG evidence documents unusually high long-duration commuting associated with Stockton and San Joaquin County, so daypart and trade-area access need separate validation for lunch- and walk-in-dependent concepts. [4] [7]
Evidence behind the city mechanisms
Modest city population growth plus continued regional housing production supports household-service demand1 modeled effect
Household service demandTarget-market demand
Long-duration outward commuting constrains uniform weekday midday walk-in demand1 modeled effect
Midday walk-in demand constraintTarget-market demand
Large logistics occupation base competes for overlapping physical frontline hourly labor1 modeled effect
Frontline labor pressureLabor and staffing friction
Documented deficient Stockton-area corridors can reduce route reliability for operations that traverse them1 modeled effect
Route and curb productivity pressureTransportation, routing, and parking
Large healthcare activity and a major Stockton hospital support institutional-service demand1 modeled effect
Healthcare institutional service demandTarget-market demand
University and hospital anchors create a concentrated professional and institutional referral base1 modeled effect
Professional and institutional relationship densityReferral ecosystem
Compare all assessed concepts
Local impact by franchise concept
14 concepts shown. Expand a concept to see the score-changing factors and their modeled drivers; the full audit ledger stays collapsed.
#1Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment71.0
City Wide
Initial investment: $229,729–$410,730
Increase +0.7 pts Target-market demandReduction -0.3 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Moderately sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.7 pts |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.5 pts |
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.3 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.98 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.7 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.3 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.5 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.98 |
| Published local-market alignment | 71.0 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.7 pts
- Tested rank range
- #1–#3
#2Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.8
HomeSmiles
Initial investment: $148,110–$201,800
Increase +0.7 pts Target-market demandReduction -0.4 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Moderately sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.7 pts | |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.4 pts |
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.4 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.78 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.7 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.4 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.4 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.78 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.8 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Adequate
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.7 pts
- Tested rank range
- #2–#5
#3Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.7
ZOOM DRAIN
Initial investment: $266,250–$570,500
Increase +0.4 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.4 pts |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.3 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.65 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.4 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.3 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.65 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.7 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.4 pts
- Tested rank range
- #2–#6
#4Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.6
Pillar To Post Home Inspectors
Initial investment: $102,690–$134,290
Increase +0.6 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.6 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.57 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
2 sourcesFull calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.6 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.57 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.6 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.6 pts
- Tested rank range
- #1–#8
#5Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.5
ActionCOACH
Initial investment: $71,668–$303,513
Increase +0.4 pts Referral ecosystemNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.4 pts |
| Target-market demand |
| +0.1 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.46 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.1 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Effect below the publication threshold |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.4 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.46 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.5 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Referral ecosystem +0.4 pts
- Tested rank range
- #1–#10
#6Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.4
Mr. Rooter
Initial investment: $152,900–$298,675
Increase +0.4 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.4 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.41 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.4 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.41 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.4 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.4 pts
- Tested rank range
- #3–#9
#7Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.4
Mister Sparky Electric
Increase +0.4 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.4 pts |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Route and curb productivity pressure EvidenceConditional — applicability must be confirmed | Not scored |
| Net local movement | +0.38 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.4 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.38 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.4 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.4 pts
- Tested rank range
- #4–#10
#8Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.3
Aire Serv
Initial investment: $113,308–$271,708
Increase +0.4 pts Target-market demandReduction -0.1 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Moderately sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.4 pts |
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.1 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.31 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
1 image
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
1 sourceFull calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.4 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.1 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.31 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.3 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Adequate
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.4 pts
- Tested rank range
- #7–#10
#9Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.3
FASTSIGNS
Initial investment: $231,226–$386,285
Increase +0.2 pts Referral ecosystemNo material negative local adjustment identified
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.2 pts |
| Target-market demand | +0.1 pts | |
| Net local movement | +0.30 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
2 images
Public company data assessed
3 sourcesFull calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.1 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.2 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.30 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.3 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Referral ecosystem +0.2 pts
- Tested rank range
- #4–#12
#10Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.1
Tiger Adjusters
Initial investment: $43,050–$159,500
Increase +0.1 pts Target-market demandReduction -0.1 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Target-market demand |
| +0.1 pts |
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.1 pts |
| Net local movement | +0.06 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
1 sourceFull calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.1 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.1 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.06 |
| Published local-market alignment | 70.1 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Adequate
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Target-market demand +0.1 pts
- Tested rank range
- #9–#13
#11Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment69.7
PuroClean
Initial investment: $54,575–$262,145
Increase +0.4 pts Referral ecosystemReduction -0.6 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Stable
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.6 pts |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.4 pts |
| Net local movement | -0.27 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | Not applicable to this operating model |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.6 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.4 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 69.73 |
| Published local-market alignment | 69.7 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Labor and staffing friction -0.6 pts
- Tested rank range
- #11–#11
#12Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment69.7
Rainbow International Restoration
Initial investment: $185,336–$351,900
Increase +0.4 pts Referral ecosystemReduction -0.7 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.7 pts |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.4 pts |
| Target-market demand |
| +0.1 pts |
| Net local movement | -0.28 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.1 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.7 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.4 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 69.72 |
| Published local-market alignment | 69.7 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Labor and staffing friction -0.7 pts
- Tested rank range
- #7–#12
#13Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment69.3
Jan-Pro International
Initial investment: $130,000–$421,500
Increase +0.5 pts Target-market demandReduction -1.3 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -1.3 pts |
| Target-market demand |
| +0.5 pts |
| Referral ecosystem |
| +0.1 pts |
| Net local movement | -0.67 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
1 image
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.5 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -1.3 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.1 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 69.33 |
| Published local-market alignment | 69.3 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Labor and staffing friction -1.3 pts
- Tested rank range
- #3–#14
#14Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment68.8
Workout Anytime
Initial investment: $1,060,850–$1,840,550
No material positive local adjustment identifiedReduction -0.7 pts Labor and staffing friction
Rank sensitivity: Stable
Why it ranks here
Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.
| Local factor | Modeled drivers | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Labor and staffing friction |
| -0.7 pts |
| Target-market demand | -0.5 pts | |
| Net local movement | -1.22 pts | |
Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.
Franchise evidence
Source material assessed
Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence
Audit layer
Full factor ledger
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | -0.5 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.7 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | Not included in the score |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 68.78 |
| Published local-market alignment | 68.8 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Evidence confidence
- City Modifier Evidence
- Adequate
- Factor Research Coverage
- Adequate
- Franchise-profile completeness
- Limited
- Source-evidence confidence
- Strong
- Geographic applicability
- Limited
- Overall evidence confidence
- Moderate evidence confidence
- Largest absolute effect
- Labor and staffing friction -0.7 pts
- Tested rank range
- #13–#14
No franchise concepts match the selected filters.
Worked score example
How we calculated City Wide
This example uses the same ledger shown for every concept and must reconcile exactly to the published score.
Full score ledger
Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not confused with missing, conditional, or non-applicable evidence.
| Neutral model baseline | 70.0 |
|---|---|
| Target-market demand | +0.7 |
| Property replacement-cycle demand | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Competitive environment | Not included in the score |
| Labor and staffing friction | -0.3 |
| Transportation, routing, and parking | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Real estate and site feasibility | Not included in the score |
| Sales and customer acquisition | Not included in the score |
| Referral ecosystem | +0.5 |
| Territory quality | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Regulatory and operating friction | Depends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition |
| Full-precision calculated score | 70.98 |
| Published local-market alignment | 71.0 |
Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.
Starting pointThe operating-model baseline shown in the first ledger row.
InteractionsAny interaction or gate is included in the relevant contribution or calibration row.
Confidence treatmentEvidence confidence is disclosed separately unless the model definition explicitly applies a calibration adjustment.
RoundingFull-precision contributions are summed before the final displayed score is rounded to one decimal place; whole-number results are shown without a trailing decimal.
Factor impact
Which local conditions changed scores or rankings?
We neutralized one factor at a time, recalculated every score, and then measured both absolute score movement and changes in rank order.
Observed model effectMixed or model dependent
Target-market demand
We tested how much of the city’s theoretical customer and business demand remained usable after operating friction.
Why concepts react differently
We applied a measurable adjustment to 13 of 14 concepts. When we neutralized the factor and recalculated the table, 11 concepts changed position. FASTSIGNS moved from #9 to #4, the largest movement among concepts directly affected by this factor.
Concepts adjusted13 of 14
Average among affected+0.3 pts
Average across all concepts+0.3 pts
Concepts changing rank11
What we observed
- Population Change From April 2020 Estimate Base To July 20251.2 percent
- Households, 2020 202499,093 households
- Mean Travel Time To Work, 2020 202431.7 minutes
Concepts helped most
City WideFacility management
+0.7 pts
HomeSmilesProperty maintenance services
+0.7 pts
Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHome inspection
+0.6 pts
Jan-Pro InternationalCommercial cleaning
+0.5 pts
Aire ServHVAC installation, repair, and maintenance
+0.4 pts
Concepts challenged most
Workout AnytimeFitness
-0.5 pts
Observed model effectMixed or model dependent
Labor and staffing friction
We compared each concept’s frontline and specialist staffing requirements with the local labor environment.
Why concepts react differently
We applied a measurable adjustment to 8 of 14 concepts. When we neutralized the factor and recalculated the table, 8 concepts changed position. Jan-Pro International moved from #13 to #4, the largest movement among concepts directly affected by this factor.
Concepts adjusted8 of 14
Average among affected-0.5 pts
Average across all concepts-0.3 pts
Concepts changing rank8
What we observed
- Transportation And Utilities Share Of Hma Nonfarm Payrolls Versus National Sharestockton hma percent: 17; national percent: 4 percent of nonfarm payrolls
- Transportation And Material Moving Employment Concentration And Wageemployment: 60,800; employment share percent: 21; us share percent: 8.8; location quotient: 2.39; mean hourly wage usd: 24.2; us mean hourly wage usd: 23.96 mixed
- High Concentration Frontline Logistics Occupations With Pay Evidencelaborers freight stock material movers hand: employment: 15,030, location quotient: 2.73, mean hourly wage usd: 23.01; packers packagers hand: employment: 2,760, location quotient: 2.64, mean hourly wage usd: 18.92 mixed
Concepts challenged most
Jan-Pro InternationalCommercial cleaning
-1.3 pts
Rainbow International RestorationRestoration
-0.7 pts
Workout AnytimeFitness
-0.7 pts
PuroCleanRestoration
-0.6 pts
HomeSmilesProperty maintenance services
-0.4 pts
Observed model effectMixed or model dependent
Referral ecosystem
We tested whether the local professional and institutional referral ecosystem materially separated the assessed concepts.
Why concepts react differently
We applied a measurable adjustment to 8 of 14 concepts. When we neutralized the factor and recalculated the table, 10 concepts changed position. ActionCOACH moved from #5 to #10, the largest movement among concepts directly affected by this factor.
Concepts adjusted8 of 14
Average among affected+0.3 pts
Average across all concepts+0.2 pts
Concepts changing rank10
What we observed
- Health Care And Social Assistance Receipts/revenue In 20222,794,093 thousand usd
- University Of The Pacific Stockton Campus Fall 2025 Enrollment4,655 students
- St. Joseph's Medical Center Institutional Scalebeds: 355; physician staff more than: 700; employees more than: 2,700 mixed
Concepts helped most
City WideFacility management
+0.5 pts
ActionCOACHBusiness coaching
+0.4 pts
HomeSmilesProperty maintenance services
+0.4 pts
PuroCleanRestoration
+0.4 pts
Rainbow International RestorationRestoration
+0.4 pts
Measured but not differentiating in this concept set
- Property replacement-cycle demandNo material score adjustment
- Competitive environmentNo material score adjustment
- Transportation, routing, and parkingNo material score adjustment
- Real estate and site feasibilityNo material score adjustment
- Sales and customer acquisitionNo material score adjustment
- Territory qualityNo material score adjustment
- Regulatory and operating frictionNo material score adjustment
Rank stability
Which positions depend most on individual assumptions?
The line shows the best and worst rank reached when one factor was removed from every concept. A narrow range indicates a more stable position.
#1 City WideModerately sensitive · tested #1–#3
#2 HomeSmilesModerately sensitive · tested #2–#5
#3 ZOOM DRAINHighly sensitive · tested #2–#6
#4 Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHighly sensitive · tested #1–#8
#5 ActionCOACHHighly sensitive · tested #1–#10
#6 Mr. RooterHighly sensitive · tested #3–#9
#7 Mister Sparky ElectricHighly sensitive · tested #4–#10
#8 Aire ServModerately sensitive · tested #7–#10
#9 FASTSIGNSHighly sensitive · tested #4–#12
#10 Tiger AdjustersHighly sensitive · tested #9–#13
#11 PuroCleanStable · tested #11–#11
#12 Rainbow International RestorationHighly sensitive · tested #7–#12
#13 Jan-Pro InternationalHighly sensitive · tested #3–#14
#14 Workout AnytimeStable · tested #13–#14
Neutralizing a factor removes it from every concept. A concept can move down even when its own score improves because competitors may benefit more.
Original factor comparison
How each factor affected the highest-rated franchise concepts
The graph includes the top 14 concepts by local-alignment score. Only nonzero score contributions are plotted. A factor is removed when every displayed concept received 0.0 points from it. Hover or focus a concept name to highlight all of its remaining data points.
Primary source records by factorTarget-market demand: [4] [5] [6] [7] [20] [21] [1] [3]Property replacement-cycle demand: [10] [5] [6] [4] [18] [1]Competitive environment: [22] [23] [4] [1] [3]Labor and staffing friction: [8] [5] [9] [21] [1] [2]Transportation, routing, and parking: [12] [13] [14] [15] [7] [4] [3]Real estate and site feasibility: [11] [16] [17] [18] [19] [10] [1] [3]Sales and customer acquisition: [22] [23] [4] [20] [21] [1]Referral ecosystem: [20] [21] [4] [5] [3]Territory quality: [12] [13] [18] [19] [10] [11] [4] [3]Regulatory and operating friction: [16] [17] [18] [19] [13] [2] [3]
View the chart data as a table
| Concept | Target-market demand | Labor and staffing friction | Referral ecosystem |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 City Wide | +0.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| #2 HomeSmiles | +0.7 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| #3 ZOOM DRAIN | +0.4 pts | — | +0.3 pts |
| #4 Pillar To Post Home Inspectors | +0.6 pts | — | — |
| #5 ActionCOACH | +0.1 pts | — | +0.4 pts |
| #6 Mr. Rooter | +0.4 pts | — | — |
| #7 Mister Sparky Electric | +0.4 pts | — | — |
| #8 Aire Serv | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts | — |
| #9 FASTSIGNS | +0.1 pts | — | +0.2 pts |
| #10 Tiger Adjusters | +0.1 pts | -0.1 pts | — |
| #11 PuroClean | — | -0.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| #12 Rainbow International Restoration | +0.1 pts | -0.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| #13 Jan-Pro International | +0.5 pts | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| #14 Workout Anytime | -0.5 pts | -0.7 pts | — |
Interpretation
How to interpret the result
City Wide, HomeSmiles, ZOOM DRAIN led because their operating requirements captured more of the local support from target-market demand while remaining less exposed to labor and staffing friction. The same city condition can help one operating model and constrain another, so score differences should be read through each concept's factor pattern rather than as a universal franchise-quality verdict. The ordering is most assumption-sensitive for ZOOM DRAIN, Pillar To Post Home Inspectors, ActionCOACH; their ranks move more widely when individual factors are neutralized.
Local evidence assessed for modeling
Category comparisons
Best franchise categories we assessed in Stockton, California
Category summaries are shown only when at least two concepts qualified. Two-concept comparisons are explicitly labeled as limited.
Limited two-concept comparison
69.7Best Restoration franchise opportunities we assessed in Stockton, California
2 Restoration concepts qualified for comparison, with scores ranging from 69.7 to 69.7. PuroClean ranked highest at 69.7. Referral ecosystem added 0.4 points on average among the affected concepts. Labor and staffing friction reduced the exposed concepts by 0.7 points on average.
Interpret cautiously: A 0.0-point spread is too small to support a strong brand-level conclusion from city alignment alone.
- Concepts compared
- 2
- Score range
- 69.7–69.7
- Category average
- 69.7
PuroClean69.7
Rainbow International Restoration69.7
Metric registry
The 28 local metrics behind this analysis
The registry shows each public metric’s raw value, period, geography, source, and its actual role in the compiled analysis.
View all local metrics
| Metric | Raw value | Period | Geography | Role in analysis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resident population estimate on July 1, 2025 | 324,597people | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Supports research conclusion | [4] |
| Population change from April 2020 estimate base to July 2025 | 1.2percent | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Used in scoring | [4] |
| Households, 2020-2024 | 99,093households | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Used in scoring | [4] |
| Owner-occupied housing unit rate, 2020-2024 | 53.9percent | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Context only | [4] |
| Mean travel time to work, 2020-2024 | 31.7minutes | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Used in scoring | [4] |
| Health care and social assistance receipts/revenue in 2022 | 2,794,093thousand usd | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Used in scoring | [4] |
| Transportation and warehousing receipts/revenue in 2022 | 1,224,057thousand usd | July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic receipts | Stockton, California | Context only | [4] |
| Residential building permits during 12 months ending July 2024 | 3,068housing units permitted | As of August 1, 2024 | Stockton-Lodi HMA / San Joaquin County | Used in scoring | [6] |
| HUD three-year new-home demand forecast and units already under construction | forecast new home demand: 10,100; under construction: 1,225; forecast period: 2024-08-01 to 2027-08-01housing units | As of August 1, 2024; forecast August 1, 2024-August 1, 2027 | Stockton-Lodi HMA / San Joaquin County | Used in scoring | [5] |
| Transportation and utilities share of HMA nonfarm payrolls versus national share | stockton hma percent: 17; national percent: 4percent of nonfarm payrolls | As of August 1, 2024; forecast August 1, 2024-August 1, 2027 | Stockton-Lodi HMA / San Joaquin County | Used in scoring | [5] |
| Long-duration commuting and Stockton supercommuter ranking | county commuters 90 plus minutes each way: 30,240; county commuters 60 plus minutes each way: 60,640; stockton finding: highest supercommuter rate among the 10 largest U.S. cities by supercommuter count; seventh nationally in total supercommutersmixed | Current report release using U.S. Census commuting data | San Joaquin County, California | Used in scoring | [7] |
| Transportation and material-moving employment concentration and wage | employment: 60,800; employment share percent: 21; us share percent: 8.8; location quotient: 2.39; mean hourly wage usd: 24.2; us mean hourly wage usd: 23.96mixed | May 2025 | Stockton-Lodi, CA MSA / San Joaquin County | Used in scoring | [8] |
| High-concentration frontline logistics occupations with pay evidence | laborers freight stock material movers hand: employment: 15,030, location quotient: 2.73, mean hourly wage usd: 23.01; packers packagers hand: employment: 2,760, location quotient: 2.64, mean hourly wage usd: 18.92mixed | May 2025 | Stockton-Lodi, CA MSA / San Joaquin County | Used in scoring | [8] |
| Installation, maintenance and repair occupation share and mean wage | stockton share percent: 3.6; us share percent: 3.9; stockton mean hourly wage usd: 33.08; us mean hourly wage usd: 30.44mixed | May 2025 | Stockton-Lodi, CA MSA / San Joaquin County | Context only | [8] |
| California general minimum wage effective January 1, 2026 | 16.9usd per hour | Effective January 1, 2026 | California | Used in scoring | [9] |
| Stockton soil series drying cracks can extend to 48 inches or to the duripan and open and close annually | 48maximum crack depth inches described | Official soil-series description accessed August 2026 | STOCKTON soil series areas near Stockton and broader valley distribution | Conditional relationship | [10] |
| Official Stockton soil series is clay or silty clay with annual shrink-swell cracking behavior | texture: clay or silty clay; annual crack cycle: open by June or July; closed by October or November; depth to duripan inches: 40-60mixed | Official soil-series description accessed August 2026 | STOCKTON soil series areas; not all parcels in Stockton | Conditional relationship | [10] |
| Stockton submarket light-industrial and R&D/flex vacancy in Q2 2026 | light industrial inventory sqft: 6,222,455; light industrial vacancy percent: 4.4; rd flex inventory sqft: 1,098,750; rd flex vacancy percent: 1.5; stockton total industrial vacancy percent: 6.3; stockton total asking nnn per sqft month: 0.75mixed | Q2 2026 | Colliers Stockton industrial submarket | Conditional relationship | [11] |
| San Joaquin County industrial vacancy, construction and asking rent in Q2 2026 | total inventory sqft millions: 141.7; overall vacancy percent: 7.1; under construction sqft millions: 7.2; overall asking nnn usd per sqft month: 0.77mixed | Q2 2026 | San Joaquin County, California | Context only | [11] |
| SJCOG identified deficient corridors serving Stockton | Kettleman Lane (SR-12): I-5 to SR-99, W Eight Mile Road: Thornton Road to SR-99, Charter Way (SR-4)/Dr Martin Luther King Jr Boulevard: S Roberts Road to E Mariposa Roadcorridor list | 2024-2025 monitoring; speed metrics primarily 2024 | Stockton-area RCMP corridors | Conditional relationship | [12] |
| I-5 Anchor Pavement Project Stage 9 and current completion schedule | stage 9 start window: 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-02; stage 9 estimated duration working days: 14; daytime lanes each direction: 3; overnight lane and ramp closures: yes; scheduled project completion: 2026-11-20mixed | Current schedule accessed August 12, 2026 | I-5 from Hammer Lane in/near Stockton to Sacramento County line; Stage 9 between Hammer Lane and Eight Mile Road | Conditional relationship | [13] [14] |
| I-5 Stockton Channel Viaduct replacement remains in project-development/design phase rather than active construction | current phase: plans specifications and estimates preparation; active disruption status: not established as current constructionstatus | Current project-development status accessed August 2026 | I-5 Stockton Channel Viaduct corridor | Context only | [15] |
| Public Facility Fees are development impact fees applied to building permits; current schedule includes transportation, street, surface-water, traffic-signal and flood-protection categories | applied to: building permits when applicable; current calculation resource: FY26-27 calculation worksheet; named fee categories: Mossdale Tract Regional Flood Protection, Regional Transportation Impact Fee, Street Improvements, Surface Water, Traffic Signalsframework | Fiscal Year 2026-27 | Stockton, California | Context only | [16] [17] |
| Stockton provides address-specific flood-zone, Base Flood Elevation, Design Flood Elevation and compliance warnings through the Forerunner portal | address specific: yes; fields: flood zone, Base Flood Elevation, Design Flood Elevation, compliance warnings, available elevation certificatesframework | Current flood-risk portal and FEMA FIRM framework accessed August 2026 | Properties within Stockton city limits | Conditional relationship | [18] |
| Building restrictions may apply to new construction and certain reconstructions or additions in FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas | zones: A, AO, AH, AE; possible requirement: elevate structures and electrical/mechanical equipment above base flood elevationconditional rule | Current flood-risk portal and FEMA FIRM framework accessed August 2026 | Stockton properties in FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas | Conditional relationship | [18] |
| New buildings or additions in a Design Review District are subject to Architectural Design Review during application processing | project status: new building, addition; location gate: Design Review Districtconditional rule | Current planning and development-review procedures accessed August 2026 | Stockton Design Review Districts | Conditional relationship | [19] |
| University of the Pacific Stockton campus Fall 2025 enrollment | 4,655students | Fall 2025 enrollment | University of the Pacific Stockton campus | Used in scoring | [20] |
| St. Joseph's Medical Center institutional scale | beds: 355; physician staff more than: 700; employees more than: 2,700mixed | December 2025 institutional profile | St | Used in scoring | [21] |
How to use the ranking
What the model can and cannot establish
- Scores measure local operating alignment, not expected financial performance or franchise-system quality.
- Citywide evidence may not describe the exact site or territory ultimately offered.
- Conditional effects are shown for diligence but do not change the published score until their applicability is established.
Methodology
How the local-alignment ranking is calculated
Measure the city
Collect reusable local metrics with source, period, geography, and confidence fields.
Profile each operating model
Map each franchise to controlled operating attributes and local sensitivities.
Apply scoreable effects
Score only effects that apply without an unresolved site, territory, customer, or project gate.
Preserve conditional effects
Keep location- or territory-dependent issues visible for diligence without automatically changing the score.
Test rank sensitivity
Remove one factor at a time from every concept and rerank using full-precision scores.
Generate public output
Create the ranking, factor-status ledger, visuals, metric registry, and automated quality report from the same data.
How the common baseline becomes a city-specific score
Every concept starts from the same 70.0 reference point, so differences come only from modeled local interactions. In this city, City Wide reached 70.98 after target-market demand +0.7 pts, referral ecosystem +0.5 pts, and labor and staffing friction -0.3 pts. The current model caps total local movement at ±18.0 points. The score is not a percentage, probability, or estimate of investment quality.
Precision and materiality
Calculations use full-precision values. Published scores and factor contributions display one decimal place, while ranks use full precision. Effects smaller than 0.1 points are identified as below the publication threshold rather than presented as a meaningful zero.
Score tiers
Tier 1 · Strongest modeled alignment80.0–100.0
Tier 2 · Favorable modeled alignment72.0–<80.0
Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment64.0–<72.0
Tier 4 · Higher-friction modeled alignment0.0–<64.0
How factor rows are classified
Positive local adjustmentNegative local adjustmentMeasured; no meaningful local adjustmentEffect below the publication thresholdNot applicable to this operating modelDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating conditionNot included in the score
What “best” means here
“Best” means the strongest modeled local operating alignment among the franchise concepts assessed on this page.
Model governance
How this report is calculated and corrected
Calculation controls
- Model designer
- Thomas Jepsen
No concept’s final score is manually raised or lowered after calculation. Before this template is activated, the report is reviewed for source scope, classification, arithmetic, unsupported claims, duplication, and readability.
Model history
- Model 0.9.0-calibration · August 19, 2026Added compiler-derived decision intelligence and observation usage mapping., Changed factor sensitivity and channel counterfactuals to full model reruns., Added data-dependent city content signals while preserving legacy public report fields., and Added model-owned semantic compatibility gates and backward-compatible channel-level evidence attribution.
Corrections policy
Corrected source, geography, or operating-profile evidence triggers a full compiler rerun so every dependent score and visual is recalculated.
Source registry
Evidence represented in this report
Each source identifies its period, scope, and the local metrics it supports. Internal or supplied research is not presented as independently accessible evidence.
- 1Structural Inefficiencies and Asymmetric Franchise Opportunities in Tier-1 U.S. MarketsInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.
- 2Forensic Audit of Structural Constraints and Latent Jurisdictional RisksInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.
- 3Franchise data - remake - aug(4).csvInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.
- 4QuickFacts: Stockton city, California
Used for: Resident population estimate on July 1, 2025, Population change from April 2020 estimate base to July 2025, Households, 2020-2024, Owner-occupied housing unit rate, 2020-2024, and Mean travel time to work, 2020-2024
- 5Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Stockton-Lodi, California
Used for: HUD three-year new-home demand forecast and units already under construction and Transportation and utilities share of HMA nonfarm payrolls versus national share
- 6Supplemental Tables for Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Stockton-Lodi, California
Used for: Residential building permits during 12 months ending July 2024
- 7San Joaquin commuters rank among the tops in nation
Used for: Long-duration commuting and Stockton supercommuter ranking
- 8Occupational Employment and Wages in Stockton-Lodi — May 2025
Used for: Transportation and material-moving employment concentration and wage, High-concentration frontline logistics occupations with pay evidence, and Installation, maintenance and repair occupation share and mean wage
- 9Minimum Wage
Used for: California general minimum wage effective January 1, 2026
- 10Official Series Description — STOCKTON Series
Used for: Stockton soil series drying cracks can extend to 48 inches or to the duripan and open and close annually and Official Stockton soil series is clay or silty clay with annual shrink-swell cracking behavior
- 11Stockton Industrial Market Report | 2026 Q2
Used for: Stockton submarket light-industrial and R&D/flex vacancy in Q2 2026 and San Joaquin County industrial vacancy, construction and asking rent in Q2 2026
- 12San Joaquin County Regional Congestion Management Program: 2025 Monitoring Report
Used for: SJCOG identified deficient corridors serving Stockton
- 13Interstate 5 Pavement Anchor Project
Used for: I-5 Anchor Pavement Project Stage 9 and current completion schedule
- 14Caltrans To Perform Final Traffic Lane Shift As Interstate 5 Anchor Pavement & Rehabilitation Project Nears Completion
Used for: I-5 Anchor Pavement Project Stage 9 and current completion schedule
- 15I-5 Stockton Channel Viaduct Replacement Project
Used for: I-5 Stockton Channel Viaduct replacement remains in project-development/design phase rather than active construction
- 16Fee Schedule
Used for: Public Facility Fees are development impact fees applied to building permits; current schedule includes transportation, street, surface-water, traffic-signal and flood-protection categories
- 17Public Facility Fees
Used for: Public Facility Fees are development impact fees applied to building permits; current schedule includes transportation, street, surface-water, traffic-signal and flood-protection categories
- 18Flood Information
Used for: Stockton provides address-specific flood-zone, Base Flood Elevation, Design Flood Elevation and compliance warnings through the Forerunner portal and Building restrictions may apply to new construction and certain reconstructions or additions in FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas
- 19Planning
Used for: New buildings or additions in a Design Review District are subject to Architectural Design Review during application processing
- 20Fast Facts and Rankings
Used for: University of the Pacific Stockton campus Fall 2025 enrollment
- 21St. Joseph's Employees Donate Toys to Children in Need
Used for: St. Joseph's Medical Center institutional scale
- 22
- 23
Before contacting a franchisor
Complete the next layer of due diligence
- Confirm the exact protected territory and neighboring units.
- Review the current Franchise Disclosure Document.
- Validate local staffing, licensing, insurance, and service-base assumptions.
- Obtain location, vehicle, buildout, or working-capital estimates.
- Speak with current and former franchisees.
- Build a candidate-specific financial scenario.
Apply the analysis to your situation
Review how these market findings apply to your budget, role, and proposed territory.
The city score does not include your experience, capital structure, time commitment, financing, or exact territory.
Disclaimer and broker disclosure: This analysis is informational and does not constitute financial, legal, accounting, or investment advice. Market-alignment scores do not predict financial performance or business success. Offers are made only through the delivery of a Franchise Disclosure Document. We may receive referral compensation from participating franchisors; compensation is not an input to the scoring model.