Local operating-model alignment analysis

Best Franchise Opportunities We Assessed in Wilmington, North Carolina

We compared 14 franchise concepts for Wilmington, North Carolina. Household service demand was a leading positive mechanism. Discretionary-spending pressure was a leading operating constraint.

What “best” means in this ranking“Best” means the strongest modeled local operating alignment among the franchise concepts assessed on this page. It does not estimate earnings or determine which franchise is best for a particular candidate.
Analysis by Thomas Jepsen, MSc Model: 0.9.0
View the ranking Read the methodology
14Concepts evaluated
19Sources used
10Primary sources
33Local metrics

Evaluation set

Why these concepts were evaluated

This is not a ranking of every franchise that may be offered in the city.

14Concepts assessed

Concepts were included when enough operating-model information existed to assign a provisional local-sensitivity profile. Unresolved inputs reduce confidence or remain conditional rather than automatically excluding a concept.

A brand’s participation in our referral network does not add points or change its position.

City-level conclusions

What stood out in our assessment

Highest category average (limited comparison)Restoration

70.6 average across 2 concepts

Largest positive factorTarget-market demand

0.5 points average among 13 affected concepts

Most assumption-sensitive rankPillar To Post Home Inspectors

Tested rank range spans 9 positions

Executive conclusion

What the ranking means for Wilmington, North Carolina

City Wide, HomeSmiles, and ZOOM DRAIN produced the highest modeled local-alignment scores in the evaluated set. Household service demand was the strongest positive scored mechanism among 8 exposed concepts, adding 0.5 points on average. Discretionary-spending pressure was the broadest operating constraint, reducing exposed concepts by 0.3 points on average. City Wide was especially relationship-sensitive: removing healthcare institutional service demand moved it from #1 to #7 in the full model rerun. These scores describe local operating alignment, not expected returns or overall franchise quality; the offered territory and franchise economics still require separate diligence.

How this differs from a directory: the model does not award points for brand popularity, advertising placement, or referral compensation. It tests how documented local conditions interact with each concept’s operating requirements.

Best franchise opportunities assessed

Top 10 local-alignment scores from 14 concepts assessed

“Best” refers to modeled local operating alignment among the concepts assessed—not expected earnings, franchise-system quality, or candidate fit.

Rankings use full-precision scores.Displayed values use one decimal place. Identical displayed scores can therefore have different ranks, and close results should be treated as effectively similar.
RankFranchiseAlignment and tierLargest advantageLargest constraintEvidence confidence
1City WideFacility managementInvestment: $229,729–$410,730
71.5Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.9 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
2HomeSmilesProperty maintenance servicesInvestment: $148,110–$201,800
71.5Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+1.0 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
3ZOOM DRAINDrain and sewer serviceInvestment: $266,250–$570,500
71.2Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.5 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
4Aire ServHVAC installation, repair, and maintenanceInvestment: $113,308–$271,708
71.0Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.6 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
5Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHome inspectionInvestment: $102,690–$134,290
70.9Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.8 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
6Mr. RooterPlumbingInvestment: $152,900–$298,675
70.9Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.6 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
7Mister Sparky ElectricElectrical
70.8Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.5 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
8Jan-Pro InternationalCommercial cleaningInvestment: $130,000–$421,500
70.8Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.6 ptsTarget-market demand No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
9Rainbow International RestorationRestorationInvestment: $185,336–$351,900
70.7Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.4 ptsReferral ecosystem No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence
10ActionCOACHBusiness coachingInvestment: $71,668–$303,513
70.6Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment
+0.6 ptsReferral ecosystem No material negative local adjustmentModerate evidence confidence

View all 14 score calculations

Conditions that changed the analysis

What mattered most in Wilmington, North Carolina

01

Recent population growth is accompanied by an active housing-development pipeline

This relationship affected 8 concepts and added 0.5 points on average among those exposed. Local evidence: Estimated households in 2024: 61,531 households. [5] [7]

02

Housing cost burden constrains a meaningful share of renter and mortgaged-owner households

This relationship affected 2 concepts and reduced 0.3 points on average among those exposed. Local evidence: Median gross rent: 1,395 usd per month. [4] [6]

03

New Hanover County visitor spending reached about $1.14 billion in 2024

The tourism totals cover all of New Hanover County, including separate beach municipalities, and are annual aggregates. They support a large regional visitor economy but do not establish uniform citywide walk-in density, a specific Wilmington trade area, or a six-month revenue drought. Fixed-location and event-dependent concepts require location- and season-specific demand evidence. [12] [1]

Evidence behind the city mechanisms

Recent population growth is accompanied by an active housing-development pipeline1 modeled effect
Household service demandTarget-market demand
Large healthcare activity supports institutional service demand without establishing broad labor inflation3 local facts · 2 modeled effects · 4 sources
  • Health care and social assistance receipts/revenue: 3,203,463,000 usd [4]
  • Education and health services employment in June 2026: 34,800 jobs [9]
  • Novant Health stated system living wage: 17 usd per hour [10] [2]
Healthcare institutional service demandTarget-market demand
Healthcare-overlap labor competitionLabor and staffing friction
UNCW and a sizable professional-services base support professional referral opportunities1 modeled effect
Professional and institutional relationship densityReferral ecosystem
Housing cost burden constrains a meaningful share of renter and mortgaged-owner households1 modeled effect
Discretionary-spending pressureTarget-market demand

Compare all assessed concepts

Local impact by franchise concept

14 concepts shown. Expand a concept to see the score-changing factors and their modeled drivers; the full audit ledger stays collapsed.

#1Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment71.5

City Wide

Facility management · B2B facility management and vendor coordination

Initial investment: $229,729–$410,730

Increase +0.9 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.9 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #1 → #7
+0.9 pts
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.7 pts
+0.7 pts
Net local movement+1.53 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.9
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.7
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score71.53
Published local-market alignment71.5

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.9 pts
Tested rank range
#1–#5
#2Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment71.5

HomeSmiles

Property maintenance services · Home-based mobile property-maintenance franchise using equipped service vans and technician crews to deliver bundled…

Initial investment: $148,110–$201,800

Increase +1.0 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.7 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: rank stays #2
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.3 pts
+1.0 pts
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.5 pts
+0.5 pts
Net local movement+1.49 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+1.0
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.5
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score71.49
Published local-market alignment71.5

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Adequate
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +1.0 pts
Tested rank range
#2–#6
#3Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment71.2

ZOOM DRAIN

Drain and sewer service · emergency skilled-trade route service

Initial investment: $266,250–$570,500

Increase +0.5 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.5 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #3 → #5
+0.5 pts
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.4 pts
+0.4 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.3 pts
+0.3 pts
Net local movement+1.17 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.5
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.3
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.4
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score71.17
Published local-market alignment71.2

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.5 pts
Tested rank range
#1–#6
#4Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment71.0

Aire Serv

HVAC installation, repair, and maintenance · Manager-led mobile HVAC installation, repair, maintenance, and emergency service business using skilled technicians…

Initial investment: $113,308–$271,708

Increase +0.6 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.6 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #4 → #9
+0.6 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.4 pts
+0.4 pts
Net local movement+1.03 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
1 image
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
1 source
YouTube video 1
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.6
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.4
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score71.03
Published local-market alignment71.0

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Adequate
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.6 pts
Tested rank range
#1–#7
#5Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.9

Pillar To Post Home Inspectors

Home inspection · mobile property inspection service

Initial investment: $102,690–$134,290

Increase +0.8 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.8 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #5 → #12
+0.8 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.1 pts
+0.1 pts
Net local movement+0.95 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
2 sources
YouTube video 1YouTube video 2
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.8
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.1
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.95
Published local-market alignment70.9

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.8 pts
Tested rank range
#3–#12
#6Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.9

Mr. Rooter

Plumbing · scheduled and emergency skilled-trade service

Initial investment: $152,900–$298,675

Increase +0.6 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.6 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #6 → #10
+0.6 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.3 pts
+0.3 pts
Net local movement+0.87 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.6
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.3
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.87
Published local-market alignment70.9

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.6 pts
Tested rank range
#4–#9
#7Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.8

Mister Sparky Electric

Electrical · skilled-trade home service

Increase +0.5 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.5 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #7 → #11
+0.5 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.3 pts
+0.3 pts
Net local movement+0.79 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.5
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.3
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.79
Published local-market alignment70.8

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.5 pts
Tested rank range
#7–#11
#8Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.8

Jan-Pro International

Commercial cleaning · recurring commercial route service

Initial investment: $130,000–$421,500

Increase +0.6 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.6 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #8 → #13
+0.6 pts
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.2 pts
+0.2 pts
Net local movement+0.79 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
1 image
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.6
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.2
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.79
Published local-market alignment70.8

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.6 pts
Tested rank range
#5–#11
#9Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.7

Rainbow International Restoration

Restoration · emergency property restoration

Initial investment: $185,336–$351,900

Increase +0.4 pts Referral ecosystemNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.4 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #9 → #10
+0.4 pts
Target-market demand
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.1 pts
+0.1 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.1 pts
+0.1 pts
Net local movement+0.66 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.1
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.1
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.4
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.66
Published local-market alignment70.7

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Referral ecosystem +0.4 pts
Tested rank range
#5–#10
#10Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.6

ActionCOACH

Business coaching · home-based B2B advisory

Initial investment: $71,668–$303,513

Increase +0.6 pts Referral ecosystemNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.6 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #10 → #13
+0.6 pts
Target-market demand
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.1 pts
+0.1 pts
Net local movement+0.65 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.1
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.6
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.65
Published local-market alignment70.6

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Referral ecosystem +0.6 pts
Tested rank range
#4–#13
#11Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.6

FASTSIGNS

Signs and graphics · B2B production and installation center

Initial investment: $231,226–$386,285

Increase +0.3 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Moderately sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Healthcare institutional service demand Evidence+0.3 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: rank stays #11
+0.3 pts
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.3 pts
+0.3 pts
Net local movement+0.62 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
2 images
Public company data assessed
3 sources
YouTube video 1YouTube video 2YouTube video 3
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.3
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.3
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.62
Published local-market alignment70.6

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.3 pts
Tested rank range
#8–#11
#12Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.6

PuroClean

Restoration · emergency property restoration

Initial investment: $54,575–$262,145

Increase +0.5 pts Referral ecosystemNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Highly sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Referral ecosystem
  • Professional and institutional relationship density Evidence+0.5 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: rank stays #12
+0.5 pts
Property replacement-cycle demand
  • Housing-system replacement demand Evidence+0.1 pts
+0.1 pts
Net local movement+0.55 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demandNot applicable to this operating model
Property replacement-cycle demand+0.1
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.5
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.55
Published local-market alignment70.6

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Referral ecosystem +0.5 pts
Tested rank range
#3–#12
#13Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment70.2

Tiger Adjusters

Public insurance adjusting · Home-based, referral-led public insurance adjusting business combining local property inspections with…

Initial investment: $43,050–$159,500

Increase +0.2 pts Target-market demandNo material negative local adjustment identified

Rank sensitivity: Moderately sensitive

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.2 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: rank stays #13
+0.2 pts
Net local movement+0.20 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 19 — Financial Performance Representation
1 image
Public company data assessed
1 source
YouTube video 1
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.2
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score70.20
Published local-market alignment70.2

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Adequate
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand +0.2 pts
Tested rank range
#11–#13
#14Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment69.9

Workout Anytime

Fitness · fixed-location membership fitness

Initial investment: $1,060,850–$1,840,550

No material positive local adjustment identifiedReduction -0.1 pts Target-market demand

Rank sensitivity: Stable

Why it ranks here

Score-changing local factors only. Evidence links open the underlying city finding.

Local factorModeled driversImpact
Target-market demand
  • Discretionary-spending pressure Evidence-0.5 pts
    Primary modeled driverRelationship test: #14 → #13
  • Household service demand Evidence+0.4 pts
-0.1 pts
Net local movement-0.09 pts

Net uses full-precision effects; displayed factor and driver rows are rounded.

Franchise evidence

Source material assessed

Item 3 — Litigation
1 image
Item 6 — Other Fees
1 image
Item 7 — Estimated Initial Investment
2 images
Item 12 — Territory
1 image
Item 20 — Outlets and Franchise Information
1 image
Full calculation and evidence confidence

Audit layer

Full factor ledger

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand-0.1
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystemNot included in the score
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score69.91
Published local-market alignment69.9

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Evidence confidence

City Modifier Evidence
Adequate
Factor Research Coverage
Adequate
Franchise-profile completeness
Limited
Source-evidence confidence
Adequate
Geographic applicability
Adequate
Overall evidence confidence
Moderate evidence confidence
Largest absolute effect
Target-market demand -0.1 pts
Tested rank range
#14–#14

Worked score example

How we calculated City Wide

This example uses the same ledger shown for every concept and must reconcile exactly to the published score.

Full score ledger

Every factor is classified so a displayed zero is not mistaken for a score-changing effect.

Neutral model baseline70.0
Target-market demand+0.9
Property replacement-cycle demandNot applicable to this operating model
Competitive environmentNot included in the score
Labor and staffing frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Transportation, routing, and parkingDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Real estate and site feasibilityNot included in the score
Sales and customer acquisitionNot included in the score
Referral ecosystem+0.7
Territory qualityNot included in the score
Regulatory and operating frictionDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating condition
Full-precision calculated score71.53
Published local-market alignment71.5

Factor calculations use full precision. Contributions and published scores are displayed to one decimal place; ranking order uses the full-precision score.

Starting pointThe operating-model baseline shown in the first ledger row.
InteractionsAny interaction or gate is included in the relevant contribution or calibration row.
Confidence treatmentEvidence confidence is disclosed separately unless the model definition explicitly applies a calibration adjustment.
RoundingFull-precision contributions are summed before the final displayed score is rounded to one decimal place; whole-number results are shown without a trailing decimal.

Factor impact

Which local conditions changed scores or rankings?

We neutralized one factor at a time, recalculated every score, and then measured both absolute score movement and changes in rank order.

Observed model effectMixed or model dependent

Target-market demand

We tested how much of the city’s theoretical customer and business demand remained usable after operating friction.

Why concepts react differently

We applied a measurable adjustment to 13 of 14 concepts. When we neutralized the factor and recalculated the table, 12 concepts changed position. Pillar To Post Home Inspectors moved from #5 to #12, the largest movement among concepts directly affected by this factor.

Concepts adjusted13 of 14
Average among affected+0.5 pts
Average across all concepts+0.4 pts
Concepts changing rank12

What we observed

  • Population Change From April 2020 Estimate Base To July 20259.8 percent
  • Estimated Households In 202461,531 households
  • Housing Units Expected From Projects Reviewed In April June 2025974 housing units when complete

Concepts helped most

HomeSmilesProperty maintenance services
+1.0 pts
City WideFacility management
+0.9 pts
Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHome inspection
+0.8 pts
Jan-Pro InternationalCommercial cleaning
+0.6 pts
Aire ServHVAC installation, repair, and maintenance
+0.6 pts

Concepts challenged most

Workout AnytimeFitness
-0.1 pts
Measured but not differentiating in this concept set
  • Competitive environmentNo material score adjustment
  • Labor and staffing frictionNo material score adjustment
  • Transportation, routing, and parkingNo material score adjustment
  • Real estate and site feasibilityNo material score adjustment
  • Sales and customer acquisitionNo material score adjustment
  • Territory qualityNo material score adjustment
  • Regulatory and operating frictionNo material score adjustment

Rank stability

Which positions depend most on individual assumptions?

The line shows the best and worst rank reached when one factor was removed from every concept. A narrow range indicates a more stable position.

#1 City WideHighly sensitive · tested #1–#5
#2 HomeSmilesHighly sensitive · tested #2–#6
#3 ZOOM DRAINHighly sensitive · tested #1–#6
#4 Aire ServHighly sensitive · tested #1–#7
#5 Pillar To Post Home InspectorsHighly sensitive · tested #3–#12
#6 Mr. RooterHighly sensitive · tested #4–#9
#7 Mister Sparky ElectricHighly sensitive · tested #7–#11
#8 Jan-Pro InternationalHighly sensitive · tested #5–#11
#9 Rainbow International RestorationHighly sensitive · tested #5–#10
#10 ActionCOACHHighly sensitive · tested #4–#13
#11 FASTSIGNSModerately sensitive · tested #8–#11
#12 PuroCleanHighly sensitive · tested #3–#12
#13 Tiger AdjustersModerately sensitive · tested #11–#13
#14 Workout AnytimeStable · tested #14–#14

Neutralizing a factor removes it from every concept. A concept can move down even when its own score improves because competitors may benefit more.

Original factor comparison

How each factor affected the highest-rated franchise concepts

The graph includes the top 14 concepts by local-alignment score. Only nonzero score contributions are plotted. A factor is removed when every displayed concept received 0.0 points from it. Hover or focus a concept name to highlight all of its remaining data points.

Factor impact among the highest-rated franchise conceptsDiverging dot plot showing nonzero factor score contributions for the top 14 concepts. Zero-point concept-factor pairs are omitted, and factors with no nonzero contributions are excluded.+1.0+0.50.0-0.5-1.0
Target-market demand
#1 City Wide · Target-market demand · +0.9 pts1#2 HomeSmiles · Target-market demand · +1.0 pts2#3 ZOOM DRAIN · Target-market demand · +0.5 pts3#4 Aire Serv · Target-market demand · +0.6 pts4#5 Pillar To Post Home Inspectors · Target-market demand · +0.8 pts5#6 Mr. Rooter · Target-market demand · +0.6 pts6#7 Mister Sparky Electric · Target-market demand · +0.5 pts7#8 Jan-Pro International · Target-market demand · +0.6 pts8#9 Rainbow International Restoration · Target-market demand · +0.1 pts9#10 ActionCOACH · Target-market demand · +0.1 pts10#11 FASTSIGNS · Target-market demand · +0.3 pts11#13 Tiger Adjusters · Target-market demand · +0.2 pts13#14 Workout Anytime · Target-market demand · -0.1 pts14
Property replacement-cycle demand
#3 ZOOM DRAIN · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.3 pts3#4 Aire Serv · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.4 pts4#5 Pillar To Post Home Inspectors · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.1 pts5#6 Mr. Rooter · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.3 pts6#7 Mister Sparky Electric · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.3 pts7#9 Rainbow International Restoration · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.1 pts9#12 PuroClean · Property replacement-cycle demand · +0.1 pts12
Referral ecosystem
#1 City Wide · Referral ecosystem · +0.7 pts1#2 HomeSmiles · Referral ecosystem · +0.5 pts2#3 ZOOM DRAIN · Referral ecosystem · +0.4 pts3#8 Jan-Pro International · Referral ecosystem · +0.2 pts8#9 Rainbow International Restoration · Referral ecosystem · +0.4 pts9#10 ActionCOACH · Referral ecosystem · +0.6 pts10#11 FASTSIGNS · Referral ecosystem · +0.3 pts11#12 PuroClean · Referral ecosystem · +0.5 pts12
Primary source records by factorTarget-market demand: [4] [5] [7] [6] [12] [11] [9] [13] [1]Property replacement-cycle demand: [5] [6] [17] [16] [1]Competitive environment: [4] [13] [3]Labor and staffing friction: [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [2]Transportation, routing, and parking: [4] [18] [19] [2] [3]Real estate and site feasibility: [13] [7] [16] [17] [1] [3]Sales and customer acquisition: [13] [12] [4] [3]Referral ecosystem: [11] [9] [4] [13]Territory quality: [4] [12] [13] [18] [3]Regulatory and operating friction: [14] [15] [16] [17] [3] [2]
View the chart data as a table
ConceptTarget-market demandProperty replacement-cycle demandReferral ecosystem
#1 City Wide+0.9 pts—+0.7 pts
#2 HomeSmiles+1.0 pts—+0.5 pts
#3 ZOOM DRAIN+0.5 pts+0.3 pts+0.4 pts
#4 Aire Serv+0.6 pts+0.4 pts—
#5 Pillar To Post Home Inspectors+0.8 pts+0.1 pts—
#6 Mr. Rooter+0.6 pts+0.3 pts—
#7 Mister Sparky Electric+0.5 pts+0.3 pts—
#8 Jan-Pro International+0.6 pts—+0.2 pts
#9 Rainbow International Restoration+0.1 pts+0.1 pts+0.4 pts
#10 ActionCOACH+0.1 pts—+0.6 pts
#11 FASTSIGNS+0.3 pts—+0.3 pts
#12 PuroClean—+0.1 pts+0.5 pts
#13 Tiger Adjusters+0.2 pts——
#14 Workout Anytime-0.1 pts——

Interpretation

How to interpret the result

City Wide, HomeSmiles, ZOOM DRAIN led because their operating requirements captured more of the local support from target-market demand while remaining less exposed to competitive environment. The same city condition can help one operating model and constrain another, so score differences should be read through each concept's factor pattern rather than as a universal franchise-quality verdict. The ordering is most assumption-sensitive for City Wide, HomeSmiles, ZOOM DRAIN; their ranks move more widely when individual factors are neutralized.

Category comparisons

Best franchise categories we assessed in Wilmington, North Carolina

Category summaries are shown only when at least two concepts qualified. Two-concept comparisons are explicitly labeled as limited.

Limited two-concept comparison

Best Restoration franchise opportunities we assessed in Wilmington, North Carolina

70.6

2 Restoration concepts qualified for comparison, with scores ranging from 70.6 to 70.7. Rainbow International Restoration ranked highest at 70.7. Referral ecosystem added 0.5 points on average among the affected concepts.

Interpret cautiously: A 0.1-point spread is too small to support a strong brand-level conclusion from city alignment alone.

Concepts compared
2
Score range
70.6–70.7
Category average
70.6
Rainbow International Restoration70.7
PuroClean70.6

Metric registry

The 33 local metrics behind this analysis

The registry shows each public metric’s raw value, period, geography, source, and its actual role in the compiled analysis.

View all local metrics
MetricRaw valuePeriodGeographyRole in analysisSource
Resident population estimate on July 1, 2025126,809peopleJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaContext only [4]
Population change from April 2020 estimate base to July 20259.8percentJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [4]
Estimated households in 202461,531households2024 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates and 2020 Decennial CensusWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [5]
Estimated total housing units in 202467,186housing units2024 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates and 2020 Decennial CensusWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [5]
Housing units expected from projects reviewed in April-June 2025974housing units when completeApril-June 2025 zoning permit activityWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [7]
Owner-occupied housing unit rate47.6percentJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaContext only [4] [6]
Median value of owner-occupied housing units383,800usdJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [4] [6]
Median gross rent1,395usd per monthJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [4]
Renter households spending at least 30 percent of income on housing costs56.4percent of renter householdsU.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year EstimatesWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [6]
Owner households with a mortgage spending at least 30 percent of income on housing costs29percent of mortgaged owner householdsU.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year EstimatesWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [6]
Median year built for occupied housing units1,989yearU.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year EstimatesWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [6] [1]
Housing units built from 1970 through 199940.2percent of housing unitsU.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year EstimatesWilmington, North CarolinaUsed in scoring [6] [1]
Health care and social assistance receipts/revenue3,203,463,000usdJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaSupports modeled relationship [4]
Education and health services employment in June 202634,800jobsJanuary-June 2026; data extracted August 13, 2026Wilmington, NC MSASupports modeled relationship [9]
Professional and business services employment in June 202624,600jobsJanuary-June 2026; data extracted August 13, 2026Wilmington, NC MSAUsed in scoring [9]
UNC Wilmington total enrollment in Fall 202519,895studentsFall 2025University of North Carolina WilmingtonUsed in scoring [11]
Approximate UNC Wilmington employee count2,500employees approximateFall 2025University of North Carolina WilmingtonUsed in scoring [11]
Visitor spending in New Hanover County during 20241,139,780,000usdCalendar year 2024New Hanover County, North CarolinaSupports research conclusion [12] [1]
Direct travel and tourism employment in New Hanover County during 20247,003jobsCalendar year 2024New Hanover County, North CarolinaSupports research conclusion [12]
Unemployment rate in June 20263.5percentJanuary-June 2026; data extracted August 13, 2026Wilmington, NC MSAContext only [9]
Mean hourly wage for food preparation and serving related occupations16.03usd per hourMay 2025Wilmington, NC MSAContext only [8]
Mean hourly wage for building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations17.93usd per hourMay 2025Wilmington, NC MSAContext only [8]
Mean hourly wage for installation, maintenance, and repair occupations27.02usd per hourMay 2025Wilmington, NC MSAContext only [8]
Novant Health stated system living wage17usd per hour2025 compensation programNovant HealthSupports modeled relationship [10] [2]
Reported Wilmington-market retail vacancy rate in first quarter 20261.4percentFirst quarter 2026 and projects active/planned in 2025-2026Wilmington marketContext only [13]
Current local reporting on small flex-space supplylimited supply with new small and mid sized projects underwayqualitativeFirst quarter 2026 and projects active/planned in 2025-2026Wilmington/New Hanover marketContext only [13] [1]
Mayfaire-area commercial demand and new developmentmedical office demand and new retail pipeline reportedqualitativeFirst quarter 2026 and projects active/planned in 2025-2026Mayfaire / Military Cutoff area, WilmingtonContext only [13] [3]
Sign permits and historic-district/overlay gatezoning permit required for permanent and temporary signs; certificate of appropriateness also required in local historic and overlay districtsqualitativeCurrent requirements accessed August 2026City of WilmingtonConditional relationship [14] [15]
Scope of Wilmington Comprehensive Stormwater Ordinanceapplies to new development redevelopment expansion or modification of existing developmentqualitativeCurrent requirements accessed August 2026; ordinance effective November 1, 2009City of WilmingtonContext only [16]
FEMA-designated flood zones affect parts of Wilmingtonproperty specific flood zone exposure exists within cityqualitativeCurrent guidance accessed August 2026Wilmington, North CarolinaContext only [17] [1]
Mean travel time to work18.5minutesJuly 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measuresWilmington, North CarolinaContext only [4]
Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement project statuspreferred option not yet selected and funding solution still in developmentqualitativeProject-development status as of June 15, 2026Cape Fear Memorial Bridge / Wilmington western approachSupports modeled relationship [18] [19] [2]
Cape Fear Memorial Bridge 2021 average annual daily traffictotal vehicles: 69,000; trucks: 8,280vehicles per dayEnvironmental assessment released August 2026; bridge traffic reference year 2021Cape Fear Memorial BridgeSupports modeled relationship [19]

How to use the ranking

What the model can and cannot establish

  • Scores measure local operating alignment, not expected financial performance or franchise-system quality.
  • Citywide evidence may not describe the exact site or territory ultimately offered.
  • Conditional effects are shown for diligence but do not change the published score until their applicability is established.

Methodology

How the local-alignment ranking is calculated

01

Measure the city

Collect reusable local metrics with source, period, geography, and confidence fields.

02

Profile each operating model

Map each franchise to controlled operating attributes and local sensitivities.

03

Apply scoreable effects

Score only effects whose applicability is established at the report’s current geographic and operating scope.

04

Preserve conditional effects

Keep location- or territory-dependent issues visible for diligence without automatically changing the score.

05

Test rank sensitivity

Remove one factor at a time from every concept and rerank using full-precision scores.

06

Generate public output

Create the ranking, factor-status ledger, visuals, metric registry, and automated quality report from the same data.

How the common baseline becomes a city-specific score

Every concept starts from the same 70.0 reference point, so differences come only from modeled local interactions. In this city, City Wide reached 71.53 after target-market demand +0.9 pts and referral ecosystem +0.7 pts. The current model caps total local movement at ±18.0 points. The score is not a percentage, probability, or estimate of investment quality.

Precision and materiality

Calculations use full-precision values. Published scores and factor contributions display one decimal place, while ranks use full precision. Effects smaller than 0.1 points are identified as below the publication threshold rather than presented as a meaningful zero.

Score tiers

Tier 1 · Strongest modeled alignment80.0–100.0
Tier 2 · Favorable modeled alignment72.0–<80.0
Tier 3 · Mixed modeled alignment64.0–<72.0
Tier 4 · Higher-friction modeled alignment0.0–<64.0

How factor rows are classified

Positive local adjustmentNegative local adjustmentMeasured; no meaningful local adjustmentEffect below the publication thresholdNot applicable to this operating modelDepends on the specific site, territory, or operating conditionNot included in the score
What “best” means here

“Best” means the strongest modeled local operating alignment among the franchise concepts assessed on this page.

Model 0.9.0 · Compiler 0.15.1-franchise-image-filter · Report generated August 19, 2026 (site timezone)

Model governance

How this report is calculated and corrected

Calculation controls

Model designer
Thomas Jepsen

No concept’s final score is manually raised or lowered after calculation. Before this template is activated, the report is reviewed for source scope, classification, arithmetic, unsupported claims, duplication, and readability.

Model history

  1. Model 0.9.0-calibration · August 19, 2026Added compiler-derived decision intelligence and observation usage mapping., Changed factor sensitivity and channel counterfactuals to full model reruns., Added data-dependent city content signals while preserving legacy public report fields., and Added model-owned semantic compatibility gates and backward-compatible channel-level evidence attribution.

Corrections policy

Corrected source, geography, or operating-profile evidence triggers a full compiler rerun so every dependent score and visual is recalculated.

Source registry

Evidence represented in this report

Each source identifies its period, scope, and the claims or metrics it supports. Internal or supplied research is clearly distinguished from publicly accessible evidence.

  1. 1
    Utility Delta Audit: Structural Inefficiencies and Asymmetric Opportunities in U.S. MarketsInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.

    Used for: Median year built for occupied housing units, Housing units built from 1970 through 1999, Visitor spending in New Hanover County during 2024, Current local reporting on small flex-space supply, and FEMA-designated flood zones affect parts of Wilmington

    Publisher
    Supplied research material
    Published
    February 24, 2026
    Data period
    Research cited through February 2026
    Scope
    Wilmington, North Carolina section within a multi-city docket
    Locator
    Wilmington section, pages 3-5
    Source tier
    Tier 5 · supplied bespoke research
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  2. 2
    Municipal Hostility Index: Forensic Capitalization of Structural Constraints and Economic Choke PointsInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.

    Used for: Novant Health stated system living wage and Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement project status

    Publisher
    Supplied research material
    Published
    February 19, 2026
    Data period
    Research cited through February 2026
    Scope
    Wilmington, North Carolina section within a multi-city docket
    Locator
    Wilmington section, pages 4-6
    Source tier
    Tier 5 · supplied bespoke research
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  3. 3
    Franchise data - remake - 162(1).csvInternal or supplied research; not publicly accessible.

    Used for: Mayfaire-area commercial demand and new development

    Publisher
    Supplied research material
    Data period
    Supplied neighborhood research rows
    Scope
    Six Wilmington-labeled rows covering Riverlights, Mayfaire, Landfall, Porters Neck, Wrightsville Beach, and Carolina Beach
    Locator
    Rows where city=Wilmington and state=North Carolina
    Source tier
    Tier 5 · supplied bespoke research
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  4. 4
    QuickFacts: Wilmington city, North Carolina

    Used for: Resident population estimate on July 1, 2025, Population change from April 2020 estimate base to July 2025, Owner-occupied housing unit rate, Median value of owner-occupied housing units, and Median gross rent

    Publisher
    U.S. Census Bureau
    Data period
    July 1, 2025 population estimate; 2020-2024 ACS-derived characteristics; 2022 economic census measures
    Scope
    Wilmington city, North Carolina
    Locator
    Population, housing, income, transportation, and economic rows
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  5. 5
    Wilmington city, North Carolina - Census Bureau Profile

    Used for: Estimated households in 2024 and Estimated total housing units in 2024

    Publisher
    U.S. Census Bureau
    Data period
    2024 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates and 2020 Decennial Census
    Scope
    Wilmington city, North Carolina
    Locator
    Housing units, households, employment, and population profile
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  6. 6
    Wilmington, NC Facts, Statistics and Data

    Used for: Owner-occupied housing unit rate, Median value of owner-occupied housing units, Renter households spending at least 30 percent of income on housing costs, Owner households with a mortgage spending at least 30 percent of income on housing costs, and Median year built for occupied housing units

    Publisher
    Neilsberg Research
    Data period
    U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates
    Scope
    Wilmington city, North Carolina
    Locator
    Housing Profile: median year built, year-built distribution, and housing cost burden
    Source tier
    Tier 4 · directional public-data analysis
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  7. 7
    In the Zone with Planning & Development: New Faces, New Paces at City Hall

    Used for: Housing units expected from projects reviewed in April-June 2025

    Publisher
    City of Wilmington, North Carolina
    Published
    November 5, 2025
    Data period
    April-June 2025 zoning permit activity
    Scope
    City of Wilmington
    Locator
    Zoning Permit Reviews
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  8. 8
    Occupational Employment and Wages in Wilmington, NC — May 2025

    Used for: Mean hourly wage for food preparation and serving related occupations, Mean hourly wage for building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations, and Mean hourly wage for installation, maintenance, and repair occupations

    Publisher
    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Published
    July 8, 2026
    Data period
    May 2025
    Scope
    Wilmington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area
    Locator
    Table A and detailed food-preparation examples
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  9. 9
    Wilmington, NC Economy at a Glance

    Used for: Education and health services employment in June 2026, Professional and business services employment in June 2026, and Unemployment rate in June 2026

    Publisher
    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Data period
    January-June 2026; data extracted August 13, 2026
    Scope
    Wilmington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area
    Locator
    Labor force and nonfarm wage and salary employment
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  10. 10
    Recognizing remarkable: Novant Health invests more than $300 million in team member compensation

    Used for: Novant Health stated system living wage

    Publisher
    Novant Health
    Published
    February 24, 2025
    Data period
    2025 compensation program
    Scope
    Novant Health system across the Carolinas
    Locator
    Living wage and compensation investment
    Source tier
    Tier 2 · named institutional source
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  11. 11
    Get to Know UNCW

    Used for: UNC Wilmington total enrollment in Fall 2025 and Approximate UNC Wilmington employee count

    Publisher
    University of North Carolina Wilmington
    Data period
    Fall 2025
    Scope
    UNC Wilmington campus, Wilmington, North Carolina
    Locator
    At a Glance enrollment and university size
    Source tier
    Tier 2 · named institutional source
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  12. 12
    2024 Visitor Impact for New Hanover County; Record Spending Sets New Benchmark

    Used for: Visitor spending in New Hanover County during 2024 and Direct travel and tourism employment in New Hanover County during 2024

    Publisher
    Wilmington and Beaches Convention & Visitors Bureau
    Published
    August 28, 2025
    Data period
    Calendar year 2024
    Scope
    New Hanover County, including Wilmington and beach municipalities
    Locator
    Visitor spending and tourism employment; study prepared for Visit North Carolina by Tourism Economics
    Source tier
    Tier 2 · institutional study summary
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  13. 13
    Trends To Watch: Commercial Real Estate

    Used for: Reported Wilmington-market retail vacancy rate in first quarter 2026, Current local reporting on small flex-space supply, and Mayfaire-area commercial demand and new development

    Publisher
    Greater Wilmington Business Journal / WilmingtonBiz
    Published
    April 13, 2026
    Data period
    First quarter 2026 and projects active/planned in 2025-2026
    Scope
    Wilmington commercial market and selected New Hanover-area submarkets
    Locator
    Industrial Focus, Retail Changeover, Office Demand, Submarket Sprawl, and Space on the Way
    Source tier
    Tier 4 · strong local reporting
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  14. 14
    Install a sign

    Used for: Sign permits and historic-district/overlay gate

    Publisher
    City of Wilmington, North Carolina
    Data period
    Current requirements accessed August 2026
    Scope
    City of Wilmington, with historic-district and overlay conditions
    Locator
    Sign standards and historic/overlay Certificate of Appropriateness requirement
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  15. 15
    Certificate of Appropriateness-Major Works

    Used for: Sign permits and historic-district/overlay gate

    Publisher
    City of Wilmington, North Carolina
    Data period
    Current requirements accessed August 2026
    Scope
    Local historic districts and historic overlays in Wilmington
    Locator
    COA applicability and Historic Preservation Commission review of major exterior work and signage
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  16. 16
    Stormwater Permits

    Used for: Scope of Wilmington Comprehensive Stormwater Ordinance

    Publisher
    City of Wilmington, North Carolina
    Data period
    Current requirements accessed August 2026; ordinance effective November 1, 2009
    Scope
    City of Wilmington development and redevelopment
    Locator
    Comprehensive Stormwater Ordinance scope and permit process
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  17. 17
    Zoning Compliance

    Used for: FEMA-designated flood zones affect parts of Wilmington

    Publisher
    City of Wilmington, North Carolina
    Data period
    Current guidance accessed August 2026
    Scope
    City of Wilmington
    Locator
    FEMA flood zones, floodplain determination, and certificate-of-occupancy compliance
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  18. 18
    Cape Fear Memorial Bridge Replacement Study — Study Highlights

    Used for: Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement project status

    Publisher
    North Carolina Department of Transportation
    Published
    June 15, 2026
    Data period
    Project-development status as of June 15, 2026
    Scope
    Cape Fear Memorial Bridge between Wilmington/New Hanover County and Brunswick County
    Locator
    Current alternative-selection and funding status
    Source tier
    Tier 1 · government
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026
  19. 19
    Report Weighs Potential Impacts From Cape Fear Memorial Bridge Alternatives

    Used for: Cape Fear Memorial Bridge replacement project status and Cape Fear Memorial Bridge 2021 average annual daily traffic

    Publisher
    Greater Wilmington Business Journal / WilmingtonBiz
    Published
    August 17, 2026
    Data period
    Environmental assessment released August 2026; bridge traffic reference year 2021
    Scope
    Cape Fear Memorial Bridge and downtown Wilmington approaches
    Locator
    Environmental-assessment alternatives, traffic volume, possible construction impacts, and tolling uncertainty
    Source tier
    Tier 4 · strong local reporting
    Accessed
    August 18, 2026

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